Cautious Belief Formation

Arbeitspapier

We provide an axiomatic approach to a belief formation process in an informational environment characterized by limited, heterogenous and diff erently precise information. For a list of previously observed cases an agent needs to express her belief by assigning probabilities to possible outcomes. Different numbers of observations of a particular case give rise to varying precision levels associated to the pieces of information. Different precise information affects the cautiousness and confi dence with which agents form estimations. We modify the Concatenation axiom introduced in Billot, Gilboa, Samet and Schmeidler (BGSS) (Econometrica, 2005) in a way to capture the impact of precision and its related perceptional e ects, while still keeping its normative appealing spirit. We obtain a representation of a belief as a weighted sum of estimates induced by past cases. The estimates are affected by cautiousness and confidence considerations depending on the precision of the underlying observed information, which generalizes BGSS. The weights are determined by frequencies of the observed cases and their similarities with the problem under consideration.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers ; No. 507

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles ; Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty ; Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
• Subject: Belief formation ; prior ; relative frequencies ; case-based reasoning ; similarity precision ; ambiguity ; learning ; imagination ; confidence ; cautiousness

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Bleile, Jörg
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Bielefeld University, Center for Mathematical Economics (IMW)
• (where): Bielefeld
• (when): 2014

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.2139/ssrn.2433731
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/103924
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET