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Has the Euro changed the Business Cycle?

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In this paper we analyze European business cycles before and under EMU. Across the two periods we ?nd 1) a signi?cant decline in real exchange rate volatility, 2) signi?cant changes in cross-country correlations, and 3) the volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals largely un- changed. We develop a two-country business cycle model and show that the calibrated model is able to replicate key features of the data prior to and under EMU.We ?nd that the euro has a strong bearing on the transmission mechanism as cross-country spillovers increase substantially under EMU. As a result, foreign shocks become more and domestic shocks less important in accounting for the (unchanged) volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals.

Language: Englisch

Bibliographic citation: Series: Bonn Econ Discussion Papers ; No. 6/2009

Classification: Wirtschaft
Open Economy Macroeconomics
International Policy Coordination and Transmission
Business Fluctuations; Cycles

Subject: European business cycles
Euro
Optimum Currency Area
EMU
Monetary Policy
Exchange rate regime
Cross-country spillovers
Konjunktur
Volatilität
Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion
Konjunkturzusammenhang
Schock
Spillover-Effekt
EU-Staaten

Event: Geistige Schöpfung

(who): Enders, Zeno
Jung, Philip
Müller, Gernot J.

Event: Veröffentlichung

(who): University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE)

(where): Bonn

(when): 2009

Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/37040

Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET

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Object type

Arbeitspapier

Associated

Enders, Zeno
Jung, Philip
Müller, Gernot J.
University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE)

Time of origin

2009

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