Arbeitspapier
Fiscal sustainability duringthe COVID-19 pandemic
The "Great Lockdown" implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe world-wide economic crisis. In euro area countries, sovereign debt-to-GDP ratios are on the rise and reductions in expected fiscal surpluses raise sustainability concerns amongst investors. This paper provides novel estimates of non-linear state-dependent fiscal limits based on Bi (2012) for the five largest euro area countries. Within the DSGE model I build a COVID-19 scenario calibrated to match the decline in real GDP growth forecasts between April and February2020 and the fiscal stimulus packages announced up to the end of March 2020. On average, fiscal space contracts by 58.4 percent of national GDP. In a worst-case scenario fiscal space is 28.6 percent for Italy and 65.9 percent of national GDP for Germany.
- ISBN
-
978-3-95729-732-7
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper ; No. 35/2020
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General
National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General
- Thema
-
state-dependent fiscal limits
fiscal space
sovereign debt
Laffer curve
COVID-19
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Hürtgen, Patrick
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Deutsche Bundesbank
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2020
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Hürtgen, Patrick
- Deutsche Bundesbank
Entstanden
- 2020
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