House price forecasts in times of crisis: Do forecasters herd?

Arbeitspapier

We used Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006 - 2010 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices, where anti-herding is less strong in the case of medium-term forecasts, especially in the case of housing starts.

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• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Discussion Paper ; No. 318

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Expectations; Speculations ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
• Subject: Forecasts of house prices and housing starts ; Herding ; Immobilienpreis ; Informationsmarkt ; Herdenverhalten ; Schätzung ; USA

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Pierdzioch, Christian ; Rülke, Jan Christoph ; Stadtmann, Georg
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): European University Viadrina, Department of Business Administration and Economics
• (where): Frankfurt (Oder)
• (when): 2012

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/59528