Financial Linkages and Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization: Evidence from Europe

Arbeitspapier

We analyze whether financial integration between countries leads to converging or diverging business cycles using a dynamic spatial model. Our model allows for contemporaneous spillovers of shocks to GDP growth between countries that are financially integrated and delivers a scalar measure of the spillover intensity at each point in time. For a financial network of ten European countries from 1996-2017, we find that the spillover effects are positive on average but much larger during periods of financial stress, pointing towards stronger business cycle synchronization. Dismantling GDP growth into value added growth of ten major industries, we observe that some sectors are strongly affected by positive spillovers (wholesale & retail trade, industrial production), others only to a weaker degree (agriculture, construction, finance), while more nationally influenced industries show no evidence for significant spillover effects (public administration, arts & entertainment, real estate).

Objekt anzeigen

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. TI 2020-008/III

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; International Business Cycles ; General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)
• Thema: Financial Integration ; Business Cycle Synchronization ; Industry Dynamics ; Spatial Model

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Boehm, Hannes ; Schaumburg, Julia ; Tonzer, Lena
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Tinbergen Institute
• (wo): Amsterdam and Rotterdam
• (wann): 2020

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/220045