The (Structural) Gravity of Epidemics

Arbeitspapier

Epidemiological models assume gravity-like interactions of individuals across space without microfoundations. We combine a simple epidemiological frame-work with a dynamic model of individual location choice. The model predicts that flows of people across space obey a structural gravity equation. By means of an application to data from Great Britain we show that our structural-gravity framework: provides a rationale for quarantines; offers a clear mapping from observed geography to the spread of a disease; and makes it possible to evaluate the welfare impact of (expected and unexpected) mobility restrictions in the face of a deadly epidemic.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 8295

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Studies of Particular Policy Episodes ; Empirical Studies of Trade ; Trade: Forecasting and Simulation ; Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers ; Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics: Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population; Neighborhood Characteristics
• Subject: epidemics ; Covid-19 ; gravity ; regional mobility

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Cuñat, Alejandro ; Zymek, Robert
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
• (where): Munich
• (when): 2020

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/219113
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET