Real exchange rate, output and oil: case of four large energy producers

Arbeitspapier

We assess the effects of oil price shocks on real exchange rate and output in four large energy-producing countries: Iran, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Russia. We estimate four-variable structural vector autoregressive models using standard long-run restrictions. Not surprisingly, we find that higher real oil prices are associated with higher output. However, we also find that supply shocks are by far the most important driver of real output in all four countries, possibly due to ongoing transition and catching-up. Similarly, oil shocks do not account for a large share of movements in the real exchange rate, although they are clearly more significant for Iran and Venezuela than for the other countries.

Object Details

• ISBN: 978-952-462-967-6
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: BOFIT Discussion Papers ; No. 6/2009

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Foreign Exchange ; Energy and the Macroeconomy
• Subject: structural VAR model ; oil price ; Iran ; Kazakhstan ; Russia ; Venezuela

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Korhonen, Iikka ; Mehrotra, Aaron
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
• (where): Helsinki
• (when): 2009

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/212650
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET