Arbeitspapier
Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior
The way in which individual expectations shape aggregate macroeconomic variables is crucial for the transmission and effectiveness of monetary policy. We study the individual expectations formation process and the interaction with monetary policy, within a standard New Keynesian model, by means of laboratory experiments with human subjects. Three aggregate outcomes are observed: convergence to some equilibrium level, persistent oscillatory behavior and oscillatory convergence. We fit a heterogeneous expectations model with a performance-based evolutionary selection among heterogeneous forecasting heuristics to the experimental data. A simple heterogeneous expectations switching model fits individual learning as well as aggregate macro behavior and outperforms homogeneous expectations benchmarks. Moreover, in accordance to theoretical results in the literature on monetary policy, we find that an interest rate rule that reacts more than point for point to inflation has some stabilizing effects on inflation in our experimental economies, although convergence can be slow in presence of evolutionary learning.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. 13-016/II
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Design of Experiments: Laboratory, Individual
Design of Experiments: Laboratory, Group Behavior
Expectations; Speculations
Monetary Policy
- Thema
-
Experiments
New Keynesian Macro Model
Monetary Policy
Expectations
Heterogeneity
Preis
Prognoseverfahren
Erwartungstheorie
Lernprozess
Test
Evolutionärer Algorithmus
Theorie
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Assenza, Tiziana
Heemeijer, Peter
Hommes, Cars
Massaro, Domenico
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Tinbergen Institute
- (wo)
-
Amsterdam and Rotterdam
- (wann)
-
2013
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
- 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Assenza, Tiziana
- Heemeijer, Peter
- Hommes, Cars
- Massaro, Domenico
- Tinbergen Institute
Entstanden
- 2013
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