Arbeitspapier
How important are consumer confidence shocks for the propagation of business cycles in Bulgaria?
This paper takes an otherwise standard real-business-cycle setup with government sector, and augments it with shocks to consumer confidence to study business cycle fluctuations. A surprise increase in consumer confidence generates higher utility, as the household values consumption more in that scenario. As a test case, the model is calibrated to Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board (1999-2018). We find that shocks to consumer confidence by themselves cannot be the main driving force behind business cycle fluctuations, but when combined with technology shocks, model performance improves substantially. Therefore, allowing for additional factors, such as consumer confidence, to interact with technology shocks can be useful in explaining business cycle movements.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: LEAF Working Paper Series ; No. 19-03
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Fiscal Policy
Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- Thema
-
consumer confidence shocks
business cycles
Bulgaria
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Vasilev, Aleksandar
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
University of Lincoln, Lincoln International Business School, Lincoln Economics and Finance Research Group (LEAF)
- (wo)
-
Lincoln
- (wann)
-
2019
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:46 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Vasilev, Aleksandar
- University of Lincoln, Lincoln International Business School, Lincoln Economics and Finance Research Group (LEAF)
Entstanden
- 2019
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
How Important Are Consumer Confidence Shocks for the Propagation of Business Cycles in Bulgaria?
Are habits important for the propagation of business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria?
Are "fair" wages quantitatively important for business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria?
Are "fair" wages quantitatively important for business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria?
Is military spending quantitatively important for business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria
Are habits in consumption important for the propagation of business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria?
Are credit shocks quantitatively important for the propagation of aggregate fluctuations in Bulgaria (1999-2018)?
Are labor unions important for business cycle fluctuations: lessons from Bulgaria (1999-2016)
How quantitatively important are the shocks to the time endowment for business cycle fluctuations? Lessons for Bulgaria (1999-2018)
How quantitatively important are shocks to consumption and income tax rates for business cycle fluctuations? Lessons from Bulgaria (1999-2020)
Are labor unions important for business cycle fluctuations? Lessons from Bulgaria
VAT Evasion in Bulgaria: A General-Equilibrium Approach
How Important Are Consumer Confidence Shocks for the Propagation of Business Cycles in Bulgaria?
Are habits important for the propagation of business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria?
Are "fair" wages quantitatively important for business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria?
Are "fair" wages quantitatively important for business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria?
Is military spending quantitatively important for business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria
Are habits in consumption important for the propagation of business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria?
Are credit shocks quantitatively important for the propagation of aggregate fluctuations in Bulgaria (1999-2018)?
Are labor unions important for business cycle fluctuations: lessons from Bulgaria (1999-2016)
How quantitatively important are the shocks to the time endowment for business cycle fluctuations? Lessons for Bulgaria (1999-2018)
How quantitatively important are shocks to consumption and income tax rates for business cycle fluctuations? Lessons from Bulgaria (1999-2020)
Are labor unions important for business cycle fluctuations? Lessons from Bulgaria
VAT Evasion in Bulgaria: A General-Equilibrium Approach
How Important Are Consumer Confidence Shocks for the Propagation of Business Cycles in Bulgaria?
Are habits important for the propagation of business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria?
Are "fair" wages quantitatively important for business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria?
Are "fair" wages quantitatively important for business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria?
Is military spending quantitatively important for business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria
Are habits in consumption important for the propagation of business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria?
Are credit shocks quantitatively important for the propagation of aggregate fluctuations in Bulgaria (1999-2018)?
Are labor unions important for business cycle fluctuations: lessons from Bulgaria (1999-2016)
How quantitatively important are the shocks to the time endowment for business cycle fluctuations? Lessons for Bulgaria (1999-2018)
How quantitatively important are shocks to consumption and income tax rates for business cycle fluctuations? Lessons from Bulgaria (1999-2020)
Are labor unions important for business cycle fluctuations? Lessons from Bulgaria