Implementation of the Delphi technique in finance

Artikel

In the rapidly developing world, forecasting is very important for numerous aspects of our lives, the finance realm not being an exception. Various qualitative and quantitative methods are used to predict what is ahead. One of them is the Delphi method, an anonymous, structured discussion among experts on the forecasted topic. Developed over 60 years ago, it is one of the most effective qualitative forecasting and decision-making techniques. That said, literature review suggests Delphi's advantages have not been sufficiently utilized in financial research. This paper is an introduction to Delphi with a focus on the method's application possibilities in finance and related disciplines. For this purpose, we performed a literature review and presented a step-by-step guide for implementing the Delphi technique, describing a structure of the Delphi process, major principles of Delphi, experts' selection, Delphi types, ways of establishing consensus, validity of the method among others. Finally, we focused on implementing Delphi in finance and offered example topics that could be studied with Delphi.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Journal: e-Finanse: Financial Internet Quarterly ; ISSN: 1734-039X ; Volume: 10 ; Year: 2014 ; Issue: 4 ; Pages: 36-45 ; Rzeszów: University of Information Technology and Management

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods ; General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Expectations; Speculations ; International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
• Subject: Delphi method ; financial forecasting ; structured discussion

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Kozak, Marcin ; Iefremova, Olesia
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): University of Information Technology and Management
• (where): Rzeszów
• (when): 2014

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.14636/1734-039X_10_4_004
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/147112
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET