The Dynamics of Repeat Migration : A Markov Chain Analysis

Arbeitspapier

While the literature has established that there is substantial and highly selective return migration, the growing importance of repeat migration has been largely ignored. Using Markov chain analysis, this paper provides a modeling framework for repeated moves of migrants between the host and home countries. The Markov transition matrix between the states in two consecutive periods is parameterized and estimated using a logit specification and a large panel data with 14 waves. The analysis for Germany, the largest European immigration country, shows that more than 60% of the migrants are indeed repeat migrants. The out-migration per year is low, about 10%. Migrants are more likely to leave again early after their arrival in Germany, and when they have social and familial bonds in the home country, but less likely when they have a job in Germany and speak the language well. Once out-migrated from Germany, the return probability is about 80% and guided mainly by remittances and family considerations.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: DIW Discussion Papers ; No. 378

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities ; Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers ; International Migration ; Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory ; Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
• Thema: Repeat Migration ; Guestworkers ; Qualitative Choice Models ; Duration Analysis ; Markov Chain Analysis ; Einwanderung ; Rückwanderung ; Migrationstheorie ; Markovscher Prozess ; Schätzung ; Deutschland

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Zimmermann, Klaus F. ; Constant, Amelie F.
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
• (wo): Berlin
• (wann): 2003

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18135
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ