Arbeitspapier
Evaluating Implied RNDs by some New Confidence Interval Estimation Techniques
This paper evaluates the precision of the parametric double lognormal (DLN) and the nonparametric smoothing spline method (SPLINE) for estimating risk-neutral distributions (RNDs) from observed option prices. By using a bootstrap technique confidence bands are estimated for the riskneutral distributions (RNDs) and the width is used as the criterion when evaluating the precision of the two. Previous literature on estimating confidence bands has to a large extent been estimated by Monte Carlo methods. We argue that the bootstrap technique is to be preferred due to the non-normality of the error structure. Our findings favour the SPLINE method, yielding tighter confidence bands. An example showing how the confidence intervals could be used for practical purposes is also provided.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series ; No. 146
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: Other
Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- Subject
-
Implied risk-neutral distribution
confidence intervals
bootstrap
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Andersson, Magnus
Lomakka, Magnus
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Sveriges Riksbank
- (where)
-
Stockholm
- (when)
-
2003
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Andersson, Magnus
- Lomakka, Magnus
- Sveriges Riksbank
Time of origin
- 2003
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