Arbeitspapier
Money demand stability and inflation prediction in the four largest EMU countries
In this paper we analyze the money demand functions of the four largest EMU countries and of the four-country (EMU-4) aggregate. We identify reasonable and stable money demand relationships for Germany, France and Spain as well as the EMU-4 aggregate. For the case of Italy, results are less clear. From the estimated money demand functions, we derive both EMU-4 and country-specific measures of money overhang. We find that the EMU-4 overhang measure strongly correlates with the countryspecific measures, particularly since the start of EMU, and is useful to predict country-specific inflation. However, it generally does not encompass country-specific money overhang measures as predictors of inflation. Hence, aggregate money overhang is an important, but by far not an exhaustive, indicator fort he disaggregate level.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Kiel Working Paper ; No. 1443
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Demand for Money
Monetary Policy
- Thema
-
Money demand
stability
money overhang
inflation forecast
Geldnachfrage
Schätzung
Geldmenge
Monetärer Indikator
Inflation
Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion
Deutschland
Frankreich
Spanien
Italien
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Carstensen, Kai
Hagen, Jan
Hossfeld, Oliver
Salazar Neaves, Abelardo
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- (wo)
-
Kiel
- (wann)
-
2008
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Carstensen, Kai
- Hagen, Jan
- Hossfeld, Oliver
- Salazar Neaves, Abelardo
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Entstanden
- 2008
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