Arbeitspapier
Federal reserve information during the great moderation
Using data from the period 1970-1991, Romer and Romer (2000) showed that Federal Reserve forecasts of inflation and output were superior to those provided by commercial forecasters. In this paper, we show that this superior forecasting performance deteriorated after 1991. Over the decade 1992-2001, the superior forecast accuracy of the Fed held only over a very short time horizon and was limited to its forecasts of inflation. In addition, the performance of both the Fed and the commercial forecasters in predicting inflation and output, relative to that of 'naive' benchmark models, dropped remarkably during this period.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series ; No. WP07/22
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
- Thema
-
Wirtschaftsprognose
Inflationsrate
Gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion
Zentralbank
Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut
USA
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
D'Agostino, Antonello
Whelan, Karl
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
University College Dublin, UCD School of Economics
- (wo)
-
Dublin
- (wann)
-
2007
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
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ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- D'Agostino, Antonello
- Whelan, Karl
- University College Dublin, UCD School of Economics
Entstanden
- 2007
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