Arbeitspapier
What Do German Short-Term Interest Rates Tell Us About Future Inflation?
In this paper, the author empirically assesses the predictive power of short-term interest rates and term spreads for future inflation in Germany. Based on a multivariate term structure framework, a vector error forecasting equation for inflation forecasts of up to two years is constructed. The results of the alternative error correction reveal that the level of the shortterm interest rates conveys much more information on future inflation than the yield curve spreads. In particular, the one-month and three-month nominal interest rates seem to be informative on future inflation at a two-year horizon.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Working Paper ; No. 94
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Model Construction and Estimation
- Thema
-
inflation
interest rates
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Grech, Harald
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB)
- (wo)
-
Vienna
- (wann)
-
2004
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Grech, Harald
- Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB)
Entstanden
- 2004
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