Population Aging, Retirement, and Aggregate Productivity

Arbeitspapier

Most industrialized countries today are facing historical demographic changes, paring increasing retirement with a declining labor force. We study the consequences of an increasing pensioner-worker ratio in a macroeconomic framework, which suggests a negative effect on total factor productivity. Using newly collected longitudinal data on pensioners, we quantify this effect by exploiting variation in the pre-determined component of retirement. We find that a 10-point increase in the pensioner-worker ratio decreases factor productivity by 5-6%. The effect is stronger when production is labor intensive and automation potential is low. Economic aging also impedes the creation of innovation at the technological frontier.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 10594

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models ; Single Equation Models: Single Variables: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation ; Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity ; Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts ; Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-labor Market Discrimination ; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General
• Thema: aging ; retirement ; factor productivity ; secular stagnation ; demographic transition

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Gründler, Klaus ; Potrafke, Niklas
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
• (wo): Munich
• (wann): 2023

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/279345
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ