Storm surge hazard over Bengal delta: a probabilistic–deterministic modelling approach
Abstract > 150 million) mega-delta. Here, we generated and analysed a storm surge database derived from a large ensemble of 3600 statistically and physically consistent synthetic storm events and a high-resolution storm surge modelling system. The storm surge modelling system is developed based on a custom high-accuracy regional bathymetry enabling us to estimate the surges with high confidence. From the storm surge dataset, we performed a robust probabilistic estimate of the storm surge extremes. Our ensemble estimate shows that there is a diverse range of water level extremes along the coast and the estuaries of the Bengal delta, with well-defined regional patterns. We confirm that the risk of inland storm surge flooding at a given return period is firmly controlled by the presence of coastal embankments and their height. We also conclude that about 10 % of the coastal population is living under the exposure of a 50-year return period inundation under current climate scenarios. In the face of ongoing climate change, which is likely to worsen the future storm surge hazard, we expect our flood maps to provide relevant information for coastal infrastructure engineering, risk zoning, resource allocation, and future research planning.
- Standort
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Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
- Umfang
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Online-Ressource
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Erschienen in
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Storm surge hazard over Bengal delta: a probabilistic–deterministic modelling approach ; volume:22 ; number:7 ; year:2022 ; pages:2359-2379 ; extent:21
Natural hazards and earth system sciences ; 22, Heft 7 (2022), 2359-2379 (gesamt 21)
- Urheber
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Khan, Md Jamal Uddin
Durand, Fabien
Emanuel, Kerry
Krien, Yann
Testut, Laurent
Islam, A. K. M. Saiful
- DOI
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10.5194/nhess-22-2359-2022
- URN
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urn:nbn:de:101:1-2022072105221807744860
- Rechteinformation
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Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
- Letzte Aktualisierung
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15.08.2025, 07:26 MESZ
Datenpartner
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Beteiligte
- Khan, Md Jamal Uddin
- Durand, Fabien
- Emanuel, Kerry
- Krien, Yann
- Testut, Laurent
- Islam, A. K. M. Saiful
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