Artikel
Searching for a theory that fits the data: A personal research odyssey
This survey paper discusses the Cointegrated Vector AutoRegressive (CVAR) methodology and how it has evolved over the past 30 years. It describes major steps in the econometric development, discusses problems to be solved when confronting theory with the data, and, as a solution, proposes a so-called theory-consistent CVAR scenario. A number of early CVAR applications are motivated by the urge to find out why the empirical results did not support Milton Friedman's concept of monetary inflation. The paper also proposes a method for combining partial CVAR analyses into a large-scale macroeconomic model. It argues that an empirically-based approach to macroeconomics preferably should be based on Keynesian disequilibrium economics, where imperfect knowledge expectations replace so called rational expectations and where the financial sector plays a key role for understanding the long persistent movements in the data. Finally, the paper argues that the CVAR is potentially a candidate for Haavelmo's "design of experiment for passive observations" and provides several illustrations.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Journal: Econometrics ; ISSN: 2225-1146 ; Volume: 9 ; Year: 2021 ; Issue: 1 ; Pages: 1-27 ; Basel: MDPI
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Economic Methodology
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Model Construction and Estimation
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- Thema
-
cointegrated VAR
empirically-based macroeconomics
linking theory to evidence
methodology
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Jusélius, Katarina
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
MDPI
- (wo)
-
Basel
- (wann)
-
2021
- DOI
-
doi:10.3390/econometrics9010005
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Artikel
Beteiligte
- Jusélius, Katarina
- MDPI
Entstanden
- 2021
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