Collection article | Sammelwerksbeitrag

Interaction between Kondratieff Waves and Juglar Cycles

Some important correlations between medium-term economic cycles (7– 11 years) known as Juglar cycles and long (40–60 years) Kondratieff cycles are presented in this paper. The research into the history of this issue shows that this aspect is insufficiently studied. Meanwhile, in our opinion, it can significantly clarify both the reasons of alternation of upswing and downswing phases in K-waves and the reasons of relative stability of the length of these waves. It also can provide the certain means for forecasting. The authors show that adjacent 2–4 medium cycles form the system the important characteristic of which is the dynamics of economic trend. The latter can be upswing (active) or downswing (depressive). The mechanisms of formation of such medium-term trends and changing tendencies are explained. The presence of such clusters of medium cycles (general duration of which is 20–30 years) determines to a large degree the long-wave dynamics and the characteristics of its timing. Thus, not medium-term J-cycles depend on the character of K-wave phase as Kondratieff supposed, but the character of the cluster of J-cycles determines significantly the character of K-wave phases.

Interaction between Kondratieff Waves and Juglar Cycles

Urheber*in: Grinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey

Rechte vorbehalten - Freier Zugang

0
/
0

ISBN
978-5-7057-4282-0
Umfang
Seite(n): 25-95
Sprache
Englisch
Anmerkungen
Status: Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet (peer reviewed)

Erschienen in
Kondratieff Waves: Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff; Yearbook

Thema
Wirtschaft
Volkswirtschaftstheorie

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Grinin, Leonid
Korotayev, Andrey
Ereignis
Herstellung
(wer)
Grinin, Leonid
Devezas, Tessaleno C.
Korotayev, Andrey
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Uchitel Publishing House
(wo)
Russland, Volgograd
(wann)
2014

URN
urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-58889-7
Rechteinformation
GESIS - Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften. Bibliothek Köln
Letzte Aktualisierung
21.06.2024, 16:27 MESZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
GESIS - Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften. Bibliothek Köln. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Sammelwerksbeitrag

Beteiligte

  • Grinin, Leonid
  • Korotayev, Andrey
  • Devezas, Tessaleno C.
  • Uchitel Publishing House

Entstanden

  • 2014

Ähnliche Objekte (12)