Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany

Arbeitspapier

Can right-wing terrorism increase support for far-right populist parties, and if so, why? Exploiting quasi-random variation between successful and failed attacks across German municipalities, we find that successful attacks lead to significant increases in the vote share for the right-wing, populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party. Our results are predominantly observable in state elections, though attacks that receive high media coverage increase the AfD vote share in Federal elections. These patterns hold even though most attacks are motivated by right-wing causes and target migrants. Using a longitudinal panel of individuals, we find successful terror leads individuals to prefer the AfD more and worry more about migration. Exploiting news reports, we find that successful attacks receive more media coverage from local and regional publishers and that this coverage focuses on Islam and terror. Overall, and in contrast to previous work, we find terrorism is politically consequential in Western, multi-party democratic systems.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 10653

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior ; Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law ; Entertainment; Media
• Thema: terrorism ; populism ; media ; salience ; voting

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Sabet, Navid ; Liebald, Marius ; Friebel, Guido
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
• (wo): Munich
• (wann): 2023

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/282341
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ