The fractional energy balance equation for climate projections through 2100

Abstract h τ α ν h = [ 0.33, 0.44] = τ = [ 2.4, 7.0] = h = 1, and literature values of τ α = [ 0.2, 1.0] = ν = [ 0.15, 0.41] = α = ν = 1. The overpowered aerosols support a revision of the global modern (2005) aerosol forcing 90 % CI to a narrower range [- 1.0, - 0.2 ] W m- 2. The key parameter ECS in comparison to IPCC AR5 (and to the CMIP6 MME), the 90 % CI range is reduced from [1.5, 4.5] K ([2.0, 5.5] K) to [1.6, 2.4] K ([1.5, 2.2] K), with median value lowered from 3.0 K (3.7 K) to 2.0 K (1.8 K). Similarly we found for the transient climate response (TCR), the 90 % CI range shrinks from [1.0, 2.5] K ([1.2, 2.8] K) to [1.2, 1.8] K ([1.1, 1.6] K) and the median estimate decreases from 1.8 K (2.0 K) to 1.5 K (1.4 K). As often seen in other observational-based studies, the FEBE values for climate sensitivities are therefore somewhat lower but still consistent with those in IPCC AR5 and the CMIP6 MME. Using these parameters, we made projections to 2100 using both the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, and compared them to the corresponding CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles (MMEs). The FEBE historical reconstructions (1880–2020) closely follow observations, notably during the 1998–2014 slowdown (“hiatus”). We also reproduce the internal variability with the FEBE and statistically validate this against centennial-scale temperature observations. Overall, the FEBE projections were 10 %–15 % lower but due to their smaller uncertainties, their 90 % CIs lie completely within the GCM 90 % CIs. This agreement means that the FEBE validates the MME, and vice versa.

Object Details

• Location: Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
• Extent: Online-Ressource
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: The fractional energy balance equation for climate projections through 2100 ; volume:13 ; number:1 ; year:2022 ; pages:81-107 ; extent:27 ; Earth System Dynamics ; 13, Heft 1 (2022), 81-107 (gesamt 27)

Contributors, Places and Time

• Creator: Procyk, Roman ; Lovejoy, Shaun ; Hébert, Raphaёl

Further information

• DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-81-2022
• URN: urn:nbn:de:101:1-2022012004141991738458
• Rights: Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
• Last update: 15.08.2025, 7:28 AM CEST