El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability in equilibrated warmer climates
Abstract CO 2 forcing from seven general circulation models. Comparing the warmer climate to control simulations, ENSO variability weakens, with the neutral state lasting longer, while active ENSO states last shorter and skew to favor the La Niña state. The 6-month persistence-assessed ENSO predictability slightly reduces in five models and increases in two models under the warming condition. While the overall changes in ENSO predictability are insignificant, we find significant relationships between changes in predictability and intensity, duration, and skewness of the three individual ENSO states. The maximal contribution to changes in the predictability of El Niño, La Niña and neutral states stems from changes in skewness and events' duration. Our findings show that a robust and significant decrease in ENSO characteristics does not imply a similar change in ENSO predictability in a warmer climate. This could be due to model deficiencies in ENSO dynamics and limitations in the persistence model when predicting ENSO.
- Standort
-
Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
- Umfang
-
Online-Ressource
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability in equilibrated warmer climates ; volume:13 ; number:4 ; year:2022 ; pages:1611-1623 ; extent:13
Earth System Dynamics ; 13, Heft 4 (2022), 1611-1623 (gesamt 13)
- Urheber
-
Zheng, Yiyu
Rugenstein, Maria
Pieper, Patrick
Beobide-Arsuaga, Goratz
Baehr, Johanna
- DOI
-
10.5194/esd-13-1611-2022
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:101:1-2022112404390003408243
- Rechteinformation
-
Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
15.08.2025, 07:23 MESZ
Datenpartner
Deutsche Nationalbibliothek. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Beteiligte
- Zheng, Yiyu
- Rugenstein, Maria
- Pieper, Patrick
- Beobide-Arsuaga, Goratz
- Baehr, Johanna
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
Long-lead ENSO predictability from CMIP5 decadal hindcasts
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global warming
Maximizing ENSO as a source of western US hydroclimate predictability
Statistical predictability of Niño indices for two types of ENSO
Optimal localized observations for advancing beyond the ENSO predictability barrier
Enhancing predictability by increasing nonlinearity in ENSO and Lorenz systems
The changes in ENSO-induced tropical Pacific precipitation variability in the past warm and cold climates from the EC-Earth simulations
Seasonal predictability of winter ENSO types in operational dynamical model predictions
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact on tuna fisheries in Indian Ocean
Climates
Cold tongue/Warm pool and ENSO dynamics in the Pliocene
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) imprints recorded in central and southwest Pacific caves
Long-lead ENSO predictability from CMIP5 decadal hindcasts
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global warming
Maximizing ENSO as a source of western US hydroclimate predictability
Statistical predictability of Niño indices for two types of ENSO
Optimal localized observations for advancing beyond the ENSO predictability barrier
Enhancing predictability by increasing nonlinearity in ENSO and Lorenz systems
The changes in ENSO-induced tropical Pacific precipitation variability in the past warm and cold climates from the EC-Earth simulations
Seasonal predictability of winter ENSO types in operational dynamical model predictions
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact on tuna fisheries in Indian Ocean
Climates
Cold tongue/Warm pool and ENSO dynamics in the Pliocene
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) imprints recorded in central and southwest Pacific caves
Long-lead ENSO predictability from CMIP5 decadal hindcasts
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global warming
Maximizing ENSO as a source of western US hydroclimate predictability
Statistical predictability of Niño indices for two types of ENSO
Optimal localized observations for advancing beyond the ENSO predictability barrier
Enhancing predictability by increasing nonlinearity in ENSO and Lorenz systems
The changes in ENSO-induced tropical Pacific precipitation variability in the past warm and cold climates from the EC-Earth simulations
Seasonal predictability of winter ENSO types in operational dynamical model predictions
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact on tuna fisheries in Indian Ocean
Climates
Cold tongue/Warm pool and ENSO dynamics in the Pliocene