Regional employment forecasts with spatial interdependencies
Abstract: "The labour-market policy-mix in Germany is increasingly being decided on a regional level. This requires additional knowledge about the regional development which (disaggregated) national forecasts cannot provide. Therefore, we separately forecast employment for the 176 German labour- market districts on a monthly basis. We first compare the prediction accuracy of standard time-series methods: autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA), exponentially weighted moving averages (EWMA) and the structural-components approach (SC) in these small spatial units. Second, we augment the SC model by including autoregressive elements (SCAR) in order to incorporate the influence of former periods of the dependent variable on its current value. Due to the importance of spatial interdependencies in small labour-market units, we further augment the basic SC model by lagged values of neighbouring districts in a spatial dynamic panel (SCSAR). The prediction accuracies of the models are compa
- Weitere Titel
-
Regionale Beschäftigungsprognosen mit räumlichen Interdependenzen
- Standort
-
Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
- Umfang
-
Online-Ressource, 46 S.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Anmerkungen
-
Veröffentlichungsversion
- Erschienen in
-
IAB Discussion Paper: Beiträge zum wissenschaftlichen Dialog aus dem Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung ; Bd. 2/2007
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wo)
-
Nürnberg
- (wann)
-
2007
- Urheber
- Beteiligte Personen und Organisationen
-
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (IAB)
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-320416
- Rechteinformation
-
Open Access unbekannt; Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
15.08.2025, 07:27 MESZ
Datenpartner
Deutsche Nationalbibliothek. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Beteiligte
- Hampel, Katharina
- Kunz, Marcus
- Schanne, Norbert
- Wapler, Rüdiger
- Weyh, Antje
- Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (IAB)
Entstanden
- 2007
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
Regional employment forecasts with spatial interdependencies
Regional employment forecasts with spatial interdependencies
Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies
Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies
Forecasting employment in Europe: Are survey results helpful?
Forecasting employment in Europe: Are survey results helpful?
How large are the direct employment effects of new businesses? An empirical investigation
The direct employment effects of new businesses in Germany revisited: an empirical investigation for 1976 - 2004
Return migration to East Germany: Spatial patterns and the relevance for regional labor markets
Direct and indirect effects of new business formation on regional employment
Who benefits from GRW? Heterogeneous employment effects of investment subsidies in Saxony Anhalt
Employment effects of investment grants and firm heterogeneity: Evidence from a staggered adoption approach
Regional employment forecasts with spatial interdependencies
Regional employment forecasts with spatial interdependencies
Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies
Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies
Forecasting employment in Europe: Are survey results helpful?
Forecasting employment in Europe: Are survey results helpful?
How large are the direct employment effects of new businesses? An empirical investigation
The direct employment effects of new businesses in Germany revisited: an empirical investigation for 1976 - 2004
Return migration to East Germany: Spatial patterns and the relevance for regional labor markets
Direct and indirect effects of new business formation on regional employment
Who benefits from GRW? Heterogeneous employment effects of investment subsidies in Saxony Anhalt
Employment effects of investment grants and firm heterogeneity: Evidence from a staggered adoption approach
Regional employment forecasts with spatial interdependencies
Regional employment forecasts with spatial interdependencies
Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies
Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies
Forecasting employment in Europe: Are survey results helpful?
Forecasting employment in Europe: Are survey results helpful?
How large are the direct employment effects of new businesses? An empirical investigation
The direct employment effects of new businesses in Germany revisited: an empirical investigation for 1976 - 2004
Return migration to East Germany: Spatial patterns and the relevance for regional labor markets
Direct and indirect effects of new business formation on regional employment
Who benefits from GRW? Heterogeneous employment effects of investment subsidies in Saxony Anhalt