Arbeitspapier
A dynamical systems approach to modeling human development
A key aim of economics is to set goals and investigate the relationship between various socio-economic indicators. By fitting time series data using a Bayesian dynamical systems approach we identify non-linear interactions between GDP, child mortality, fertility rate and female education. We show that reduction in child mortality is best predicted by the level of GDP in a country over the preceding 5 years. Fertility rate decreases when current or predicted child mortality is low, and is weakly dependent on female education and economic growth. As fertility drops, GDP increases producing a cycle that drives the demographic transition.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Working Paper ; No. 2014:9
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Model Construction and Estimation
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
Planning Models; Planning Policy
- Thema
-
Demographic transition
Human Development
dynamical systems
Bayesian
data-driven
GDP
child mortality
fertility rate
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Ranganathan, Shyam
Swain, Ranjula Bali
Sumpter, David J. T.
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Uppsala University, Department of Economics
- (wo)
-
Uppsala
- (wann)
-
2014
- Handle
- URN
-
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-235541
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Ranganathan, Shyam
- Swain, Ranjula Bali
- Sumpter, David J. T.
- Uppsala University, Department of Economics
Entstanden
- 2014
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