Trend und Zyklus im Bruttoinlandsprodukt der Bundesrepublik Deutschland - eine Anmerkung

Arbeitspapier

This note shows that German real GDP follows a trend-stationary process. Both tests which have trend-stationarity as the alternative hypothesis as well as tests that have it under the null hypothesis prefer the trend-stationary model. Explicit consideration of breaks in the trend is not necessary to obtain this result. The trend-stationary model with breaks is, however, advantageous for trend-cycle decompositions.

Object Details

• Language: Deutsch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Kiel Working Paper ; No. 993

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Hypothesis Testing: General ; Statistical Simulation Methods: General ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles
• Subject: Konjunkturzyklus ; Stationarität ; Strukturbrüche Trends ; business cycles ; stationarity ; structural change ; Trend ; Konjunktur ; Sozialprodukt ; Zeitreihenanalyse ; Unit Root Test ; Strukturbruch ; Schätzung ; Deutschland

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Meier, Carsten-Patrick
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Kiel Institute of World Economics (IfW)
• (where): Kiel
• (when): 2000

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/2464
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET