Arbeitspapier
Euro area real-time density forecasting with financial or labor market frictions
We compare real-time density forecasts for the euro area using three DSGE models. The benchmark is the Smets-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds financial frictions and expands the observables to include a measure of the external finance premium. The second allows for the extensive labor-market margin and adds the unemployment rate to the observables. The main question we address is if these extensions improve the density forecasts of real GDP and inflation and their joint forecasts up to an eight-quarter horizon. We find that adding financial frictions leads to a deterioration in the forecasts, with the exception of longer-term inflation forecasts and the period around the Great Recession. The labor market extension improves the medium to longer-term real GDP growth and shorter to medium-term inflation forecasts weakly compared with the benchmark model.
- ISBN
-
978-92-899-3245-5
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 2140
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Bayesian Analysis: General
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Thema
-
Bayesian inference
DSGE models
forecast comparison
inflation
output
predictive likelihood
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
McAdam, Peter
Warne, Anders
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
European Central Bank (ECB)
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2018
- DOI
-
doi:10.2866/742803
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- McAdam, Peter
- Warne, Anders
- European Central Bank (ECB)
Entstanden
- 2018
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