Arbeitspapier

Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods

The paper discusses some widely used methods for estimating output gaps based on aggregated data for the eurozone. Though these methods exhibit some common features, an empirical comparison demonstrates that the various techniques differ substantially. In particular, the correlation of output gaps calculated with different methods is generally low, the methods imply different turning points, and the estimated level of the output gap differs greatly. Moreover, tests suggest that some of the methods commonly used have only limited information content for inflation forecasting in the euro-zone. Conclusions for business cycle analysis and economic policy are offered.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Kiel Working Paper ; No. 1053

Classification
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Subject
Output Gap
European Monetary Union
Business Cycles
Wirtschaftspotential
Konjunkturforschung
Schätztheorie
Ökonometrisches Modell
Theorie
Wirtschaftspotential
Konjunktur
Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion
Schätzung
EU-Staaten

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Döpke, Jörg
Chagny, Odile
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Kiel Institute of World Economics (IfW)
(where)
Kiel
(when)
2001

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Döpke, Jörg
  • Chagny, Odile
  • Kiel Institute of World Economics (IfW)

Time of origin

  • 2001

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