Arbeitspapier
A multivariate filter to estimate potential output and NAIRU for the Maltese economy
This paper applies a multivariate filter on a small macroeconomic model to derive estimates of Malta's potential output growth, the output gap and NAIRU. These unobservable variables are derived from a system that accounts for the interactions between output, core inflation, unemployment and foreign demand, the latter reflecting the structural characteristics of Malta as a small and open economy. The model is estimated using Bayesian inference methods on quarterly data for the period 1999-2013. The estimates from the multivariate filter are compared with those derived from a univariate filter and production function approaches. The economic and financial crisis of 2009 had a negative impact on Malta's growth potential, although there are tentative signs of a gradual recovery in 2013. On the contrary, the crisis had no permanent impact on NAIRU.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: CBM Working Papers ; No. WP/05/2014
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Fiscal Policy
Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General
National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Micallef, Brian
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Central Bank of Malta
- (where)
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Valletta
- (when)
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2014
- Handle
- Last update
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10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Micallef, Brian
- Central Bank of Malta
Time of origin
- 2014
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