Forecasting Employment for Germany

Arbeitspapier

This paper deals with the estimation of employment equations for Germany, which are to be used for forecasting and simulation purposes. The authors estimate both single and system error correction equations for German working hours using quarterly raw data covering the period 1980:1-2004:2. Since the focus is on the question whether German reunification has affected or even modified the underlying economic relationships, the authors compare the results to those reported in previous studies for West Germany and Germany, respectively. The authors find that the elasticity of employment with respect to output is robustly estimated and can therefore be restricted to one. The elasticity of employment with respect to the real wage, however, is affected by German reunification and relative factor prices no longer play a significant role. The forecasting quality of the employment equation is satisfactory.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: IMK Working Paper ; No. 1/2006

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity ; Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
• Subject: employment ; forecasting ; cointegration ; Germany

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Hinz, Darius ; Logeay, Camille
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
• (where): Düsseldorf
• (when): 2006

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/105877
• URN: urn:nbn:de:101:1-20080814124
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET