Arbeitspapier | Working paper

Separating attitudes towards money from attitudes towards probabilities: stake effects and ambiguity as a test for prospect theory

Prospect theory (PT) is the dominant descriptive theory of decision making under risk today. For the modeling of choices, PT relies on a psychologically founded separation of risk attitudes into attitudes towards outcomes, captured in a value function; and attitudes towards probabilities, captured in a probability weighting function. However, while it is theoretically sound, it is unclear whether this clear separation is reflected in actual choices. To test this, we designed two experiments. In the first experiment, we elicit the value and probability weighting functions both under known and unknown probabilities. The results support PT and show that the value function is unaffected by the nature of the probabilities, which only affects probability weighting. More in general, this finding supports theories that represent ambiguity attitudes through probability transformations rather than utility transformations. In the second experiment, we examine the effects of an increase in stakes on risk attitudes. We find that the stake increase is not reflected in the value function, but rather in the weighting function, thus contradicting PT's prediction. (author's abstract)

Umfang
Seite(n): 28
Sprache
Englisch
Anmerkungen
Status: Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet

Erschienen in
Discussion Papers / Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung, Forschungsschwerpunkt Markt und Entscheidung, WZB-Nachwuchsgruppe Risiko und Entwicklung (SP II 2013-401)

Thema
Psychologie
Soziologie, Anthropologie
Allgemeine Psychologie
Wirtschaftssoziologie
Risikoverhalten
Wahrscheinlichkeit
Präferenz
Wert
Entscheidung
Geld

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Vieider, Ferdinand M.
Cingl, Lubomír
Martinsson, Peter
Stojic, Hrvoje
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung gGmbH
(wo)
Deutschland, Berlin
(wann)
2013

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
21.06.2024, 16:27 MESZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
GESIS - Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften. Bibliothek Köln. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Vieider, Ferdinand M.
  • Cingl, Lubomír
  • Martinsson, Peter
  • Stojic, Hrvoje
  • Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung gGmbH

Entstanden

  • 2013

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