Arbeitspapier
Mind the gap: A multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections
The Eurosystem staff forecasts are conditional on the financial markets, the global economy and fiscal policy outlook, and include expert judgement. We develop a multi-country BVAR for the four largest countries of the euro area and we show that it provides accurate conditional forecasts of policy relevant variables such as, for example, consumer prices and GDP. The forecasting accuracy and the ability to mimic the path of the Eurosystem projections suggest that the model is a valid benchmark to assess the consistency of the projections with the conditional assumptions. As such, the BVAR can be used to identify possible sources of judgement, based on the gaps between the Eurosystem projections and the historical regularities captured by the model.
- ISBN
-
978-92-899-3489-3
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 2227
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Thema
-
Multi-country model
cross-checking
conditional forecast
euro area
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Angelini, Elena
Lalik, Magdalena
Lenza, Michele
Paredes, Joan
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
European Central Bank (ECB)
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2019
- DOI
-
doi:10.2866/028355
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Angelini, Elena
- Lalik, Magdalena
- Lenza, Michele
- Paredes, Joan
- European Central Bank (ECB)
Entstanden
- 2019
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