Economic Uncertainty and Fertility

Arbeitspapier

In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of the effect of uncertainty on fertility. The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We use a new measure of uncertainty, the World Uncertainty Index, and focus on data from 126 countries for the period from 1996 to 2017. The empirical findings indicate that uncertainty shocks decrease the fertility rate. This evidence is robust to different model specifications and econometric techniques as well as to the inclusion of various controls.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: GLO Discussion Paper ; No. 360

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth ; Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty ; Household Saving; Personal Finance ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
• Subject: Fertility ; Uncertainty ; WUI Index ; Precautionary Saving ; Business Cycle ; Panel Data Estimation Techniques

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Gözgör, Giray ; Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin ; Rangazas, Peter
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Global Labor Organization (GLO)
• (where): Essen
• (when): 2019

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/199088
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET