Journal article | Zeitschriftenartikel
Biased probability judgment: evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample
Many economic decisions involve a substantial amount of uncertainty, and therefore crucially depend on how individuals process probabilistic information. In this paper, we investigate the capability for probability judgment in a representative sample of the German population. Our results show that almost a third of the respondents exhibits systematically biased perceptions of probability. The findings also indicate that the observed biases are related to individual economic outcomes, which suggests potential policy relevance of our findings.
- Extent
-
Seite(n): 903-915
- Language
-
Englisch
- Notes
-
Status: Postprint; begutachtet (peer reviewed)
- Bibliographic citation
-
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 72(3)
- Subject
-
Sozialwissenschaften, Soziologie
Psychologie
Erhebungstechniken und Analysetechniken der Sozialwissenschaften
angewandte Psychologie
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Dohmen, Thomas
Falk, Armin
Huffman, David
Marklein, Felix
Sunde, Uwe
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (where)
-
Niederlande
- (when)
-
2009
- DOI
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-314229
- Rights
-
GESIS - Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften. Bibliothek Köln
- Last update
-
21.06.2024, 4:26 PM CEST
Data provider
This object is provided by:
GESIS - Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften. Bibliothek Köln. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
GESIS - Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften. Bibliothek Köln. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Zeitschriftenartikel
Associated
- Dohmen, Thomas
- Falk, Armin
- Huffman, David
- Marklein, Felix
- Sunde, Uwe
Time of origin
- 2009
Other Objects (12)
Biased probability judgment: evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample
Self-confidence and search
Do I have what it takes? Equilibrium search with type uncertainty and non-participation
Longevity and patience
Kontrolliert und repräsentativ: Beispiele zur Komplementarität von Labor- und Felddaten
Homo reciprocans: survey evidence on prevalence, behavior and success
Interpreting time horizon effects in inter-temporal choice
The Intergenerational Transmission of Attitudes
Interpreting time horizon effects in inter-temporal choice
Seemingly irrelevant events affect economic perceptions and expectations: the FIFA World Cup 2006 as a natural experiment
Are risk aversion and impatience related to cognitive ability?
On the Relationship Between Cognitive Ability and Risk Preference
Biased probability judgment: evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample
Self-confidence and search
Do I have what it takes? Equilibrium search with type uncertainty and non-participation
Longevity and patience
Kontrolliert und repräsentativ: Beispiele zur Komplementarität von Labor- und Felddaten
Homo reciprocans: survey evidence on prevalence, behavior and success
Interpreting time horizon effects in inter-temporal choice
The Intergenerational Transmission of Attitudes
Interpreting time horizon effects in inter-temporal choice
Seemingly irrelevant events affect economic perceptions and expectations: the FIFA World Cup 2006 as a natural experiment
Are risk aversion and impatience related to cognitive ability?
On the Relationship Between Cognitive Ability and Risk Preference
Biased probability judgment: evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample
Self-confidence and search
Do I have what it takes? Equilibrium search with type uncertainty and non-participation
Longevity and patience
Kontrolliert und repräsentativ: Beispiele zur Komplementarität von Labor- und Felddaten
Homo reciprocans: survey evidence on prevalence, behavior and success
Interpreting time horizon effects in inter-temporal choice
The Intergenerational Transmission of Attitudes
Interpreting time horizon effects in inter-temporal choice
Seemingly irrelevant events affect economic perceptions and expectations: the FIFA World Cup 2006 as a natural experiment
Are risk aversion and impatience related to cognitive ability?