The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures

Abstract ∘ C (with a probability of greater than 50 %) with no or limited overshoot” includes 97 scenarios for MAGICCv7.5.3 and 203 for FaIRv1.6.2. For the MAGICCv7.5.3 results, “limited overshoot” typically implies exceedance of median temperature projections of up to about 0.1 ∘ C for up to a few decades before returning to below 1.5 ∘ C by or before the year 2100. For more than half of the scenarios in this category that comply with three criteria for being “Paris-compatible”, including net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, median temperatures decline by about 0.3–0.4 ∘ C after peaking at 1.5–1.6 ∘ C in 2035–2055. We compare the methods applied in AR6 with the methods used for SR1.5 and discuss their implications. This article also introduces a “climate-assessment” Python package which allows for fully reproducing the IPCC AR6 WGIII temperature assessment. This work provides a community tool for assessing the temperature outcomes of emissions pathways and provides a basis for further work such as extending the workflow to include downscaling of climate characteristics to a regional level and calculating impacts.

Object Details

• Location: Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
• Extent: Online-Ressource
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures ; volume:15 ; number:24 ; year:2022 ; pages:9075-9109 ; extent:35 ; Geoscientific model development ; 15, Heft 24 (2022), 9075-9109 (gesamt 35)

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Soziale Probleme, Sozialdienste, Versicherungen

Contributors, Places and Time

• Creator: Kikstra, Jarmo S. ; Nicholls, Zebedee ; Smith, Christopher J. ; Lewis, Jared ; Lamboll, Robin D. ; Byers, Edward ; Sandstad, Marit ; Meinshausen, Malte ; Gidden, Matthew ; Rogelj, Joeri ; Kriegler, Elmar ; Peters, Glen P. ; Fuglestvedt, Jan S. ; Skeie, Ragnhild B. ; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard ; Wienpahl, Laura ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van ; van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar ; Al Khourdajie, Alaa ; Forster, Piers M. ; Reisinger, Andy ; Schaeffer, Roberto ; Riahi, Keywan

Further information

• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022
• URN: urn:nbn:de:101:1-2022122204142814846331
• Rights: Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
• Last update: 15.08.2025, 7:22 AM CEST