Arbeitspapier

The impact of large structural shocks onn economic relationships: Evidence from oil price shocks

This paper introduces a new model of structural breaks which assumes that structural breaks are driven by large economic shocks. The model specifies that both the timing and size of breaks are stochastic and it can be used to investigate the impact of large economic shocks on the stability of economic relationships. An application of the model to the oil-macroeconomy relationship has shown that the apparent instability of this relationship since the oil crisis in year 1973 can be attributed to large oil price shocks.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Working Paper ; No. 524

Classification
Wirtschaft
Estimation: General
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Subject
Structural breaks, State space model, Oil shocks
Mineralölpreisschock
Strukturbruch
Schätzung
Welt
Makroökonomischer Einfluss
Zustandsraummodell

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Kapetanios, George
Tzavalis, Elias
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Queen Mary University of London, Department of Economics
(where)
London
(when)
2004

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Kapetanios, George
  • Tzavalis, Elias
  • Queen Mary University of London, Department of Economics

Time of origin

  • 2004

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