Accuracy and poverty impacts of proxy means-tested transfers: An empirical assessment for Bolivia

Arbeitspapier

In the absence of reliable and exhaustive income data, Proxy Means Tests (PMTs) are frequently employed as a cost-effective way to identify income-poor beneficiaries of targeted anti-poverty programs. However, their usefulness depends on whether proxies accurately identify the income poor. Based on Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC)-analysis, we find that PMTs perform poorly in terms of identifying poor households in Bolivian data when transfers are targeted narrowly to the poor but that the true positive rate is highly responsive to increases in the proportion of beneficiaries. Using non-parametric regression-techniques, we show that the resulting leakage can largely be confined to the non-poor close to the poverty line. However, simulating the impact on poverty measures of a uniform transfer to beneficiaries across inclusion rates suggests that the largest poverty impact is attained with very narrow targeting. Hence, the link between targeting accuracy and poverty impact is weak.

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• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Discussion Papers ; No. 164

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection ; Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs ; Planning Models; Planning Policy
• Thema: targeting ; transfers ; social assistance ; proxy means tests ; poverty ; ROC-analysis ; Latin America ; Bolivia

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Klasen, Stephan ; Lange, Simon
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Courant Research Centre - Poverty, Equity and Growth (CRC-PEG)
• (wo): Göttingen
• (wann): 2015

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/107405