Voting after watching: the strategic role of election polls

Journal article | Zeitschriftenartikel

The November 2009 Romanian presidential elections illustrate the process through which media exposure to exit polls during the election day allows strategic voting in the least expected situations (i.e. in the first round of a two-ballot setting). Organized in a two-round system in which the first two competitors qualify for the second round, these elections display one unsolved dilemma. The difference registered in elections between the two challengers is twice as large as the average support in the pre-election polls (a comparable difference was never registered in post-communist Romania). Our quantitative analysis uses election results from the past two decades and aggregated poll data from 2009 and reveals that a large share of the Romanian electorate avoids wasting votes and casts them for candidates with real winning chances. This article argues that polls presented to the voters, by the media during the elections, made the difference. They were used as electoral strategies to trigger strategic voting and thus promote specific candidates. (author's abstract)

Object Details

• ISSN: 1062-7987
• Extent: Seite(n): 210-221
• Language: Englisch
• Notes: Status: Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet (peer reviewed)

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: European Review of Artistic Studies, 20(2)

Classification and Topics

• Subject: Politikwissenschaft ; Publizistische Medien, Journalismus,Verlagswesen ; Meinungsforschung ; politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur ; Wahlsystem ; Medien ; Wahlverhalten ; Wahlergebnis ; Präsidentschaftswahl ; Rumänien ; Wahl ; Verhalten ; Berichterstattung ; Prognose ; Einfluss ; Self-fulfilling Prophecy ; Wahlforschung ; empirisch-quantitativ

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Gherghina, Sergiu ; Chiru, Mihail
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (where): Deutschland
• (when): 2012

Further information

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1062798711000548
• URN: urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-441777
• Rights: GESIS - Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften. Bibliothek Köln
• Last update: 21.06.2024, 4:27 PM CEST