(Endogenous) growth slowdowns

Arbeitspapier

We develop a model where temporary non-technology shocks can lead to permanent changes in the rate of growth of total factor productivity (TFP). The key ingredient of the model is a matching processes between basic researchers, product developers, and the stock of knowledge of the economy. In this context, search externalities generate vicious and virtuous cycles in R&D. The model has a unique equilibrium path but multiple balanced growth paths (BGPs) with different growth rates. After a deep or long-lived shock, the economy can transit between these BGPs, generating "super-hysteresis" in TFP. We calibrate the model in the context of the Japanese growth slowdown and show that, quantitatively, it can explain well the TFP growth decline after the financial crisis in the 1990s. The simultaneous occurrence of demographic shocks and a persistent but temporary financial crisis gave rise to a "wretched coincidence" resulting in the growth slowdown.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: School of Economics Discussion Papers ; No. 2303

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General ; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: Other ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles
• Thema: Growth slowdowns ; permanent effects of recessions ; research and development ; super-hysteresis

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): León-Ledesma, Miguel A. ; Shibayama, Katsuyuki
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): University of Kent, School of Economics
• (wo): Canterbury
• (wann): 2023

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/284199
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 20.09.2024, 08:20 MESZ