Unemployment, hysteresis and transition

Arbeitspapier

We quantify the degree of persistence in unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. In part of the paper, we work with the concept of linear "Hysteresis" as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment. Since this is potentially a narrow definition, we also take into account the existence of structural breaks and non-linear dynamics in unemployment. Finally, we examine whether CEECs' unemployment presents features of multiple equilibria: if it remains locked into a new level whenever a structural change occurs. Our findings show that, in general, we can reject the unit root hypothesis after controlling for structural changes and business cycle effects, but we can observe the presence of a high and low unemployment equilibria. The speed of adjustment is faster for CEECs than the EU, although CEECs tend to move more frequently between equilibria.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 234

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
• Thema: Hysteresis ; Markov switching ; Transition ; Unemployment ; Unit Root

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): McAdam, Peter ; León-Ledesma, Miguel A.
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): European Central Bank (ECB)
• (wo): Frankfurt a. M.
• (wann): 2003

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/152668
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ