Adjustment of global imbalances: Illustrative scenarios for Hungary

Arbeitspapier

In this study we examine the impact on Hungary of a possible correction of global imbalances. We distinguished four different channels of the global adjustment process, which are widely referred to in the literature (fiscal tightening in the U.S.; housing price correction in the US; an increase in the risk premium of dollar assets; increase in domestic demand in the Asian region) and analyzed them through model simulations. We constructed global scenarios using the NIGEM model, while we captured the domestic impacts using the Quarterly Projection Model (NEM) of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank. According to our results, both the global and domestic effects differ significantly with respect to whether the correction originates from the U.S. or Asia and whether it is a result of policy or market processes. We found that a possible global correction will pass through to Hungary mainly through the Eurozone countries, thus its main impact will be relatively dampened. The responses of domestic macroeconomic variables depend on our assumptions on the reaction of monetary policy and the developments in the risk premium on forint denominated assets.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: MNB Occasional Papers ; No. 59

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General ; Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements ; International Policy Coordination and Transmission ; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
• Thema: monetary policy ; global inbalalnces ; forecasting ; simulation ; Internationale Wirtschaft ; Wirtschaftliche Instabilität ; Wirtschaftliche Anpassung ; Wirtschaftspolitik ; Geldpolitik ; Szenariotechnik ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Ungarn

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Hornok, Cecília ; Jakab, Zoltán M. ; Tóth, Máté Barnabás
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Magyar Nemzeti Bank
• (wo): Budapest
• (wann): 2007

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/83544
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ