Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century
Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation explains a large fraction of the climate variability across the North Atlantic from the eastern seaboard of North America across the whole of Europe. Many studies have linked the North Atlantic Oscillation to climate extremes in this region, especially in winter, which has motivated considerable study of this pattern of variability. However, one overlooked feature of how the North Atlantic Oscillation has changed over time is the explained variance of the pattern. Here we show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage of variability explained by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the 20th century from 32 % in 1930 to 53 % by the end of the 20th century. Whether this change is due to natural variability, a forced response to climate change, or some combination remains unclear. However, we found no evidence for a forced response from an ensemble of 50 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. These models did all show substantial internal variability in the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation, but it was biased towards being too high compared to the reanalysis and with too little variation over time. Since there is a direct connection between the North Atlantic Oscillation and climate extremes over the region, this has direct consequences for both the long-term projection and near-term prediction of changes to climate extremes in the region.
- Standort
-
Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
- Umfang
-
Online-Ressource
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century ; volume:5 ; number:2 ; year:2024 ; pages:753-762 ; extent:10
Weather and climate dynamics ; 5, Heft 2 (2024), 753-762 (gesamt 10)
- Urheber
-
Outten, Stephen
Davy, Richard
- DOI
-
10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:101:1-2405160433486.410132080448
- Rechteinformation
-
Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
14.08.2025, 10:58 MESZ
Datenpartner
Deutsche Nationalbibliothek. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Beteiligte
- Outten, Stephen
- Davy, Richard
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
Impact of Eurasian autumn snow on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in seasonal forecasts of the 20th century
The imaginary 20th century
Leaving The 20th Century
Structural fluctuations of the Arctic Oscillation tied to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Architecture in the 20th Century
The 20th century violin concertante
Reconciling North Atlantic climate modes: revised monthly indices for the East Atlantic and the Scandinavian patterns beyond the 20th century
Reconciling North Atlantic climate modes: Revised monthly indices for the East Atlantic and the Scandinavian patterns beyond the 20th century
Rapid increase in atmospheric iodine levels in the North Atlantic since the mid-20th century
Can oceanic paleothermometers reconstruct the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation?
Skilful predictions of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation
The world economy in the 20th century
Impact of Eurasian autumn snow on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in seasonal forecasts of the 20th century
The imaginary 20th century
Leaving The 20th Century
Structural fluctuations of the Arctic Oscillation tied to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Architecture in the 20th Century
The 20th century violin concertante
Reconciling North Atlantic climate modes: revised monthly indices for the East Atlantic and the Scandinavian patterns beyond the 20th century
Reconciling North Atlantic climate modes: Revised monthly indices for the East Atlantic and the Scandinavian patterns beyond the 20th century
Rapid increase in atmospheric iodine levels in the North Atlantic since the mid-20th century
Can oceanic paleothermometers reconstruct the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation?
Skilful predictions of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation
The world economy in the 20th century
Impact of Eurasian autumn snow on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in seasonal forecasts of the 20th century
The imaginary 20th century
Leaving The 20th Century
Structural fluctuations of the Arctic Oscillation tied to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Architecture in the 20th Century
The 20th century violin concertante
Reconciling North Atlantic climate modes: revised monthly indices for the East Atlantic and the Scandinavian patterns beyond the 20th century
Reconciling North Atlantic climate modes: Revised monthly indices for the East Atlantic and the Scandinavian patterns beyond the 20th century
Rapid increase in atmospheric iodine levels in the North Atlantic since the mid-20th century
Can oceanic paleothermometers reconstruct the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation?
Skilful predictions of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation