Stabilising the global greenhouse: A simulation model

Arbeitspapier

This paper investigates the economic implications of a comprehensive approach to greenhouse policies that strives to stabilise the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases at an ecologicaliy determined threshold level. In a theoretical optimisation model conditions for an efficient allocation of abatement effort among pollutants and over time are derived. The model is empirically speeified and adapted to a dynamic GAMS-algorithm. By various Simulation runs for the period of 1990 to 2110, the economics of greenhouse gas aecumulation are explored. In particular, the long-run cost associated with the above stabilisation target are evaluated for three different policy scenarios: i) a comprehensive approach that covers all major greenhouse gases simultaneously, ii) a piecemeal approach that is limited to reducing CO2 emissions, and iii) a tenyear moratorium that postpones abatcment effort until new scientific cvidence on the greenhouse effect will become available. Comparing the Simulation results suggests that a piecemeal approach would considerably increase total cost, whercas a ten-year moratorium might be reasonable even if the probability of 'good news' is comparatively small.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Year: 1993 ; Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW)

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft
• Subject: Klimaveränderung ; Luftverunreinigung ; Kohlendioxid ; Umweltpolitik ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Simulation ; Welt

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Michaelis, Peter
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Kiel Institute of World Economics (IfW) ; ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
• (where): Kiel
• (when): 1993

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/46940
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET